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Abstract The 2023/24 El Niño commenced with an exceptionally large warm water volume in the equatorial western Pacific, comparable to the extreme 1997/98 and 2015/16 events, but did not develop into a super El Niño. This study highlights the critical role of contrasting Northern Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) conditions in this divergence. Warm NPMM conditions during the 1997/98 and 2015/16 events created a positive zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial western-central Pacific and enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation, driving sustained westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and downwelling Kelvin waves that intensified both events. In contrast, the cold NPMM during 2023/24 induced a negative SST gradient and suppressed MJO activity, resulting in weaker WWBs and limited eastward wave activity, preventing the event from reaching super El Niño intensity. A 2,200-year CESM1 pre-industrial simulation corroborates these observational findings, underscoring the importance of NPMM interference in improving El Niño intensity predictions.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2026
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Hu, Dunxin; Wang, Fan; Sprintall, Janet; Wu, Lixin; Riser, Stephen; Cravatte, Sophie; Gordon, Arnold; Zhang, Linlin; Chen, Dake; Zhou, Hui; et al (, Journal of Oceanology and Limnology)null (Ed.)
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Zhang, Xiaoyang; Jayavelu, Senthilnath; Liu, Lingling; Friedl, Mark A.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Liu, Yan; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Gray, Joshua (, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)
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